As tensions between the U.S. and China continue to escalate, Europe is finding itself increasingly stuck in the middle—and experts say Washington’s pressure campaign to force the EU to pick a side is likely to fail.
Under former President Donald Trump, who’s once again seeking the White House, the U.S. has doubled down on trade aggression. After slapping sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports—reaching as high as 245%—Trump has now paused some tariffs on allies like the EU but still expects them to follow his lead. The message is clear: you’re either with us or with China.
But the EU isn’t eager to take sides. According to Kyle Haynes, a political science professor at Purdue University, the Trump administration’s attempt to “force Europe to choose between the U.S. and China” is unlikely to work. Europe, he says, “has the advantage of being in a pivotal position,” maintaining better relations with both powers than the U.S. and China have with each other.
While U.S. officials, including FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr, continue to frame the situation as a “time for choosing”—even warning Europe about Chinese alternatives to U.S. technologies like Starlink—Europe is not convinced. Many European leaders see Trump’s unpredictability and tendency to backtrack as reason enough to stay neutral and preserve their own economic interests.
“Trump isn’t a trustworthy negotiating partner,” Haynes said. “Europe will try to minimize the damage while waiting for him to leave office.”
And that sentiment is echoed in academia. Rosemary Foot, a senior fellow at Oxford University, pointed out that Trump’s erratic trade policy undermines U.S. credibility. “With U.S. positions changing almost daily,” she said, “it would be foolish for any European to sign up to such a polarized stance.”
At the same time, Europe faces growing pressure on both fronts. Washington has reportedly been using tariff negotiations with over 70 countries to curb Chinese trade influence, while Beijing has been accused by the EU of dumping cheap exports—especially electric vehicles—into European markets. This creates a perfect storm: U.S. pressure on one side and fear of market distortion from Chinese overcapacity on the other.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made it clear that the bloc won’t be a dumping ground. “We cannot absorb global overcapacity, nor will we accept dumping on our market,” she said as the latest round of U.S. tariffs took effect.
Even so, experts like Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies argue that a full EU-China alignment is unlikely. “Both are export-driven economies and fierce competitors,” he noted, particularly in sectors like clean tech and automotive manufacturing.
So what does Europe do? Play the long game. While Trump’s approach is rooted in brinkmanship, Europe seems focused on navigating the geopolitical standoff without burning bridges—neither with Washington nor Beijing.
As the U.S. and China fight their trade war, the EU is using its position to maintain flexibility, preserve leverage, and protect its economic interests. Whether that balancing act can hold through another Trump presidency remains to be seen.
