U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff hike may shake the global economy, but Armenia is likely to escape significant impact, according to economist Aghasi Tavadyan.
Trump’s New Tariff Policy Explained
President Trump has imposed a baseline 10% tariff on imports from over 100 countries, with even higher rates for nations or blocs that hold large trade surpluses with the United States. Armenia is one of the countries listed under the standard 10% tariff bracket.
These tariffs, part of a broader strategy targeting what Trump calls “unfair” trade practices, are set to disrupt global supply chains. However, Armenia’s minimal export volume to the U.S. seems to buffer it from major consequences.
Why Armenia Won’t Feel the Heat
Economist Aghasi Tavadyan spoke to Armenpress, highlighting why these tariffs won’t inflict serious economic damage on Armenia.
“The volume of Armenian goods exported to the U.S. is small. It won’t significantly influence our trade balance,” said Tavadyan.
Here are some key facts he shared:
- Before 2020, Armenia exported about $50 million worth of goods to the U.S.
- By 2022, that number rose to $80 million.
- But in 2023–2024, it dropped to around $40 million.
- Only 2% of Armenia’s net exports go to the United States.
Read Also: Trump is Losing the Confidence of Business Leaders, Says Billionaire Investor ‘Bill Ackman’
What Does Armenia Export to the U.S.?
The range of exported products is narrow:
- 20% is gold and diamonds
- 15% is alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages
- A small percentage includes canned vegetables and dairy products
Tavadyan noted that this limited variety means these goods can be easily substituted in the U.S. market, reducing any trade leverage Armenia might have.
Shift Toward Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)
Tavadyan believes that rather than harming Armenia, the tariffs may actually strengthen its economic ties within the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
“This could be a signal to Armenian businesses to deepen trade with EEU member countries where we already enjoy duty-free access,” he said.
In fact, over the past five years:
- Armenian exports to EEU nations have increased fivefold
- Meanwhile, exports to the European Union have dropped by 10%
A Changing Global Trade Landscape
Tavadyan also pointed out a broader political shift. He suggests Trump’s administration is pursuing a multipolar territorial policy, focusing more on U.S. neighbors like:
- Greenland
- Canada
- Panama
“This shift could reduce the global influence of organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and lead to the rise of nationalistic trade policies,” said Tavadyan.
He predicts a decline in globalism and a rise in regionalism and nationalism, marking a change in the world order from unipolar to multipolar.
What’s Next for Armenia?
While Armenia’s direct exposure to U.S. tariffs is limited, Tavadyan emphasizes the need for diversification. He advises Armenia to:
- Deepen EEU trade relations
- Explore new international markets
- Focus on developing a broader range of export products
This could serve as an opportunity for Armenia to recalibrate its trade strategy and focus on sustainable, regionally integrated economic growth.
Final Thoughts
In summary, while Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is shaking markets worldwide, Armenia’s economy remains mostly insulated—for now. The real opportunity lies in turning this global disruption into a chance for regional strengthening and market diversification.
