A new analysis paints a grim picture for independent farmers in rural America, as former President Donald Trump’s second round of tariffs threatens to deepen the financial crisis that began during his first term. According to a report by Food and Water Watch (FWW), the brunt of the economic pain is once again falling squarely on small and mid-size farms in the Midwest, while large agribusiness corporations are poised to benefit.
During Trump’s first term, retaliatory tariffs from China and other trading partners slashed U.S. agricultural exports, particularly affecting soybean, corn, and livestock producers. The fallout was severe. Farm bankruptcies surged by 24 percent between 2018 and 2019, reaching their highest level in nearly a decade. The smallest farms, those operating on fewer than ten acres, declined by 14 percent between 2017 and 2022.
In contrast, the number of large farms earning more than $2.5 million annually more than doubled during the same period.
At the heart of this disparity lies the structure of Trump’s bailout program. While the administration touted its $28 billion relief package as support for struggling farmers, the benefits disproportionately flowed to large operations. The top 10 percent of recipients received over half of the total funds, with the top 1 percent taking home an average of $183,000 each. Meanwhile, the bottom 80 percent received less than $5,000 per farm.
“Trump’s trade war policies devastated the very farmers who make up his base,” said Ben Murray, senior researcher at FWW. “And now, his second term appears to be doubling down on the same chaotic approach.”
The new wave of tariffs, broader and harsher than those implemented during Trump’s first term, come at a time when many farmers are already reeling from climate shocks and rising input costs. Compounding the situation is the rollback of several Biden-era initiatives aimed at supporting regional food systems and addressing racial disparities in agriculture.
Between 2017 and 2022, the number of Black farmers declined by 8 percent, while white farmers saw a drop of less than 1 percent. Advocates say the administration has not addressed the systemic barriers that have long marginalized minority farmers, and the renewed tariffs are expected to worsen the trend.
John Boyd Jr., president of the National Black Farmers Association, has been vocal in his criticism. “This administration is putting the heads of Black farmers on the chopping block,” Boyd said. “Trump’s tariffs are a recipe for complete disaster, and this time his voters in red states will also get punched in the face.”
Major agribusinesses like Tyson Foods and JBS, which dominate large segments of the U.S. meat market, were among the biggest winners of the first bailout program. Tyson received nearly $29 million in federal contracts, while JBS collected over $78 million. These companies have the resources to weather market instability and shift operations internationally when needed—options unavailable to smaller farms dependent on local and national supply chains.
Despite these warnings, the Trump administration appears to be moving forward without significant policy reform. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently downplayed concerns, stating that contingency plans are in place, but no new support program has yet been confirmed.
Rural voters overwhelmingly supported Trump in 2024, with the former president winning all but 11 of the 444 farming-dependent counties. But with commodity prices under pressure and trade relationships deteriorating, critics warn that continued loyalty could come at a steep cost.
“The administration seems completely blind to the harm that was done previously,” said Ben Lilliston of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. “We lost credibility in global trade markets, and the same mistakes are already being repeated.”
As China and other countries diversify their import sources, American farmers risk losing long-term export markets. In late April, China canceled a 12,000-ton pork order—the largest since the start of the pandemic—signaling that the impact of the new tariffs is already hitting home.
For now, the question remains whether Trump’s trade tactics will continue to erode the backbone of rural America or finally prompt a reckoning with a farm policy that critics say rewards size and scale over sustainability and fairness.
